5 workforce risk takeaways for operations & workforce leaders in 2026

Workforce risk rarely announces itself clearly - especially in organisations where strategic workforce planning processes are still evolving alongside day-to-day operational pressures.

It usually builds quietly. In the gap between plan and execution. In decisions delayed for another quarter. In insights that arrive after the moment to act has passed. In workarounds that keep things moving, until they start creating bigger problems.

That was the focus of our recent panel discussion on hidden workforce risks in 2026, featuring Sarah Cowen, Change Control & Activity Planning Manager at Currys; Heather Weaver, Workload Manager at Our Coop; Andrew Busby, Founder at Redline Retail; and Chris McCullough, Co-founder at Rotageek.

The discussion was practical, honest and grounded in real operational experience from business leaders and workforce practitioners - not theory.

Key takeaways at a glance: 

1) Why perfect workforce plans are unrealistic - and what works better

2) The hidden cost of waiting when change feels risky

3) Why late workforce insight is often the real problem

4) What operational leaders learn when they look beyond central data

5) The leadership mindset needed to navigate workforce risk in 2026

What leaders can do next

Here are five of the strongest takeaways in more detail: 

1. Stop chasing the perfect workforce plan

One of the clearest themes from the conversation was that operational reality will always drift from the plan.

That is not a sign of failure. It is the environment workforce leaders are operating in.

Sarah Cowen captured it brilliantly:

“You can burn an enormous amount of energy trying to perfect the plan. And actually, I think my reality now is if the plan is 80% right, and we’re reacting to the 20%, that’s probably a really healthy place to be.”

That idea matters because it changes what “good” looks like.

Strategic workforce planning helps organisations adapt to workforce demand

For many teams, the instinct is still to treat deviation as something to eliminate, especially when forecasting future demand, workforce demand and workforce requirements.

But in practice, plans are constantly meeting local conditions, unexpected demand shifts, market demands, staffing gaps, operational constraints, scenario planning and external events. The question is not whether reality will diverge. It's how quickly the organisation can recognise that and respond well.

Sarah also made the point that plans improve when teams spend less time trying to control every variable from a screen and more time checking what is actually happening on the ground:

“We’re making a real commitment to get out at least once a week and go, is what we think happening actually happening?”

That feels like a useful challenge for any workforce leader. If your workforce planning process only works in a best-case scenario, it is probably too brittle for the environment you are in.

Practical takeaway: 

A stronger workforce plan is not necessarily a more detailed one. It's one that leaves enough room to adapt when reality shifts.

2. The cost of waiting can be just as real as cost of change

Change still feels expensive in many organisations. It takes budget, attention, leadership energy, operational capacity and, often, political capital.

But the panel kept coming back to an important tension: staying still has a cost too.

Aligning workforce planning strategies with strategic objectives

Heather Weaver brought that into sharp focus:

“Every kind of hour that you have in store, or even every minute now, is a lot more expensive than it was a few years ago.”

In other words, delay is not neutral. Rising labour costs, higher expectations, tighter margins and growing complexity all mean that inefficiency compounds faster than it used to.

Sarah Cowen added another layer to that: the right decision is rarely static.

“A decision you made a week ago might have been right a week ago, but you’ve got to constantly keep evaluating this.”

That feels especially relevant now. Workforce change is no longer something that happens neatly inside a three-year programme or a once-a-year planning cycle.

It increasingly sits as part of the wider strategic business planning process, influencing cost control, service delivery, operational resilience and long-term sustainable growth. It is more continuous, more dynamic and more affected by events outside the business.

Chris McCullough made a related point around prioritisation:

“It’s really important that we say no, be clear on what we’re not going to do, which creates the space for what we are going to do.”

That is a useful leadership discipline. When everything feels important, workforce leaders can end up spreading change too thinly or creating fatigue by trying to move too much at once.

Practical takeaway:

When pressure-testing workforce change, do not just ask what change will cost. Ask what waiting is already costing you now. 

3. Late insight is expensive insight

One of the most valuable parts of the discussion was around timing.

Not whether organisations have access to relevant workforce data. Most do. The issue is whether insights arrive early enough to influence decisions, or only once the cost or service impact is already visible.

That distinction came through strongly in the panel and in the poll results. Workforce issues often become visible during peak trading, under pressure, after payroll closes, or when leadership questions start surfacing.

By then, options are narrower.

The role of workforce data analytics

Many organisations already collect large volumes of workforce data, but without strong data analytics, that information rarely translates into earlier operational decisions.

Sarah Cowen offered one of the strongest phrases from the session:

“I’m a big fan of separating the reaction from the review.”

It is a smart distinction. Some moments need immediate action. Others need reflection, pattern recognition and better planning for next time. Treating every insight as urgent can be just as unhelpful as missing it altogether.

She also put it plainly later in the session:

“Not all insight needs to drive an immediate response.”

That matters because more data doesn't automatically create better decisions unless insights connect clearly to business objectives and strategic objectives. In fact, without clear objectives, it can create noise.

Sarah made that point directly too:

“You can almost get into analysis paralysis, or you can try and react to everything.”

Chris McCullough used a Formula One analogy to make the same point from a different angle:

“The only decision they have to make is yes or no, this lap, that’s it.”

That is probably a useful test for any workforce reporting. Does it help the team make a clearer decision using the key metrics that actually influence workforce performance? Or does it just provide more information after the fact?

Practical takeaway: 

Good workforce insight isn't just about visibility. It is about timing, relevance and whether people can act on it.

 👉 Discover AI Insights  

4. You can't manage operational reality from the centre alone

Another strong thread running through the session was the importance of operational context.

Understanding the current workforce and operational reality

Again and again, the speakers came back to the same truth: workforce reality is shaped on the ground, not just in central planning models.

Heather Weaver put it simply:

“With the best, all of the data you could ever have, you will not know what is specifically happening in that store.”

That line gets to the heart of the issue. Central teams can forecast, model, analyse and benchmark workforce performance - but local conditions still matter. Whether it is a road closure, a recruitment gap, a skill shortage, a confidence issue, other factors not captured, or simply a reality that the model did not capture, the full picture rarely sits in one spreadsheet.

Heather also made a broader point about stakeholder engagement:

“Most of the time it’s a shared problem, isn’t it? When we actually reach out and speak to other people, and we’re just all coming at it from a different angle at times.”

That feels particularly relevant for workforce leaders, because so many workforce issues sit across functions. They are not just labour issues. They are customer, commercial, operational, people and service issues too.

Those challenges often affect everything from customer service to retaining employees, especially when workforce pressures build over time.

Understanding those connections helps workforce leaders align workforce decisions more closely with wider business goals.

Chris added a memorable reminder that listening should not stop with the loudest escalations:

“Often it’s the people that are quiet that are the ones that you need to listen to.”

That is useful operationally and culturally. Quiet signals are often where the most useful truth sits.

Practical takeaway: 

If your workforce visibility relies mostly on central reporting and loud escalations, you may be missing the most useful signals altogether.

5. Workforce leadership now requires a different comfort zone

The final takeaway was less about process and more about mindset.

The panel was clear that workforce leaders are now operating in an environment where uncertainty is not the exception - especially when planning for the future workforce their organisations will need. It is the baseline. Plans will change. External conditions will shift. Forecasts will be imperfect. Priorities will move.

Sarah Cowen summed that up in one line:

“Get comfortable being uncomfortable.”

It is a strong phrase, but in context it was practical rather than dramatic. Her point was that leaders need to define the level of uncertainty they are prepared to tolerate, because that shapes organisational tolerance too.

She expanded on that by saying:

“The year’s going to end differently to how we start, and we won’t necessarily know what that looks like.”

Chris McCullough echoed that in a slightly different way:

“This is the right decision with everything we know right now.”

That feels like a useful operating principle for 2026. Good decisions are not always final decisions. They are often the best decisions available with the information you currently have, combined with the willingness to refine them as reality changes.

The panel also touched on trust, transparency and psychological safety. If leaders want better judgement and faster adaptation from teams, people need to feel safe enough to raise issues, course-correct and learn in public.

As Chris put it:

“That conversation happens if people feel psychologically safe.”

Practical takeaway: 

Resilient workforce leadership is not about certainty. It is about better judgement, clearer risk tolerance and faster adaptation when conditions change.

What leaders can do next

For operations and workforce leaders - particularly senior leaders responsible for workforce strategy - the conversation highlights a few practical areas worth pressure-testing now.

1. Review how early workforce risks become visible
Are issues surfacing early enough to influence decisions - or only after performance dips?

2. Examine the gap between plan and operational reality in your workforce planning process
Where does the plan consistently diverge from what happens on the ground?

3. Reassess the cost of waiting
What improvements are being delayed because change feels disruptive?

4. Strengthen operational feedback loops
Are local teams able to surface issues before they escalate?

5. Define leadership risk tolerance
How comfortable is the organisation operating with imperfect information?

Because the biggest workforce risks in 2026 are rarely the ones leaders cannot see.

They are the ones that become visible too late to change the outcome.

 👉 Take the workforce risk assessment  

Final thoughts: hidden workforce risk is often a timing problem

One of the most interesting things about the session was that many of the risks discussed were not hidden because nobody could ever see them.

They were hidden because they became visible too late.

Too late to adjust labour before cost increased.
Too late to protect service before customer experience dipped.
Too late to avoid reactive decisions.
Too late to keep operational issues from becoming leadership issues.

That is why so much of the discussion came back to the same themes: earlier visibility, better prioritisation, stronger connection to operational reality, and more confidence adapting in uncertainty.

Strategic workforce planning ensures organisations can recognise risk earlier and respond before it escalates into operational or leadership issues, strengthening alignment with the wider organisational strategy.

For workforce and operations leaders in 2026, the real question may not be whether risk exists, but how workforce decisions connect back to the wider business strategy.

It's whether your current approach gives you a clear strategic workforce planning framework - supported by systems like Rotageek - for implementing solutions that deliver strategic workforce improvements and surface risk early enough to act.

FAQs

How does workforce data support better workforce planning? 

Access to relevant workforce data helps organisations understand how their teams are performing, forecast demand and spot operational risks earlier.

With strong analytics in place, leaders can track key metrics, evaluate planning approaches and make workforce decisions that align with wider business priorities.

What challenges do organisations face when implementing workforce planning strategies? 

Many organisations struggle with workforce planning because decisions are often made reactively rather than strategically.

Common challenges include limited visibility into future demand, fragmented data and difficulty connecting workforce decisions to wider business goals.

Effective workforce planning requires cross-functional collaboration, clear strategic priorities and systems that provide earlier operational insight.

How can organisations improve their workforce planning approach? 

Organisations can strengthen workforce planning by gaining earlier visibility into demand and operational performance.

This often involves improving data and analytics capabilities, using scenario planning and aligning workforce decisions with future business priorities.

Many organisations also adopt workforce management systems to support these processes and give leaders clearer operational insight.

How can AI and workforce insights help reduce workforce risk? 

AI-driven workforce insights can help organisations identify risks earlier and respond more effectively when conditions change.

By analysing workforce and demand data, organisations can better understand patterns in labour performance and emerging operational pressure.

Rotageek combines workforce planning, forecasting and scheduling to help operations leaders spot risk earlier, make informed decisions and build more resilient workforce plans.