The Employment Rights Act just made workforce forecasting essential

For years, a rota could be fixed on the fly. A quiet Tuesday? Send someone home early. A surprise rush? Call in a favour.

That flexibility has always had a hidden cost. Under the Employment Rights Act 2025, some of that cost is about to become very visible.

For shift-based employers, managers and workforce planners, the fix isn't more firefighting. It's better workforce forecasting, so the rota is right before it goes out.

In this blog, we review what workforce forecasting is, why it is becoming essential as the new rules take effect, how accurate forecasting supports compliant, cost-controlled scheduling, and where forecasting technology fits in.

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What is labour demand forecasting?

What's changing for rotas in 2027? 

Why does forecasting matter more under the new rules?

Changes at a glance

What does good labour demand forecasting look like?

How Rotageek forecasts labour demand and improves staff scheduling

How can you start improving your forecast now? 

Key takeaways

Get ready for 2027

What is labour demand forecasting?

Labour demand forecasting, sometimes called workforce forecasting, predicts how many people you’ll need, with which skills, at each point in the day. It's the step that turns "we'll be busy on Saturday" into "we need six people on the shop floor between 11am and 3pm".

Good forecasts draw on your own data, such as footfall, transactions, orders or patient check-ins. They also account for trends, seasons and events, from bank holidays to a big match nearby.

The forecast then shapes the rota. Get it right, and the schedule fits the day.

Get it wrong, and someone ends up fixing it at short notice.

What's changing for rotas in 2027? 

The Employment Rights Act 2025 doesn't ban zero-hours contracts. Instead, it's expected to give zero-hours and low-hours workers three new rights during 2027.

• A right to guaranteed hours: an offer of a contract that reflects the hours someone regularly works over a reference period
• A right to reasonable notice of shifts: including notice of any changes
• A right to payment for short-notice changes: when a shift is cancelled, moved or cut short at short notice

The detail, including the hours threshold, the reference period and what counts as "short notice", is still being confirmed. For the latest position on the zero-hours reform you can review Acas guidance.

These build on changes already in place, such as statutory sick pay from day one and the new harassment duty.

Why does forecasting matter more under the new rules? 

Every one of the 2027 changes makes the same case for a better forecast. Here’s why:  

1. Late changes start to carry a direct cost

Today, a cancelled or shortened shift mostly costs goodwill. Once short-notice payments apply, it also costs money.

Here's what that could look like. Imagine 40 sites, each changing six shifts a week inside the short-notice window, with four hours affected each time.

If those hours are paid at £12.71 an hour, that's around £634,000 a year in short-notice payments.

Most late changes happen because customer demand turned out different from the plan. Forecasting helps managers know how many employees are needed at a given time. A more accurate forecast means fewer surprises, and fewer changes inside the short-notice window.

2. Contracted hours and zero-hours contracts need to match real demand

Guaranteed hours offers are expected to be based on what people actually work, not what's on paper. If someone on an 8-hour contract regularly works 20, that gap matters.

A forecast, combined with labour modelling, shows how much labour each site really needs, week in, week out. , while also helping you anticipate future staffing needs. This also supports broader workforce planning across the organisation, helping ensure the right skills are in place. That helps you set contracted hours at the right level from the start, rather than relying on regular extra hours.

3. Publishing rotas earlier needs confidence 

Reasonable notice of shifts means rotas will need to go out further ahead. That's easy to promise and hard to do if you're not sure what next month looks like.

A reliable forecast gives management the confidence to publish early as preparation for future demand, and to stick to it.

4. Absence is easier to plan for 

With statutory sick pay now payable from day one, short absences carry a cost from the start.

Forecasting won't stop the Monday morning sniffles, but it can show where cover is tight, so one absence doesn't unravel the day.

5. Predictable rotas are good for your people 

Better forecasts don't just protect the budget; the benefits for employees matter too. They mean fewer cancelled shifts, fewer last-minute calls, and more time for people to plan life around work.

More predictable rotas also help people focus on their jobs instead of last-minute disruption.

That matters to the people on the rota. As Rotageek customer Linc Cymru put it, planning schedules well in advance "has made our employees very happy." 

At a glance 

What does good labour demand forecasting look like? 

Not all forecasts are created equal. Gut feel and last year’s spreadsheet can only take you so far. Good forecasting combines data analysis with management judgement when data is scarce.

These are the things that make a forecast genuinely useful for the rota.

• Fine detail: demand by the hour, or better, by the quarter-hour, not just by the day
• Your own data: historical data such as footfall, sales, transactions or check-ins, plus labor trends, turnover rates and productivity metrics, rather than a one-size-fits-all model
• Context built in: seasons, trends, promotions and local events that reveal the factors shaping likely outcomes
• By site and by task: because the tills, the stockroom and the café don't peak at the same time
• Gap analysis: compares workforce demand against supply to identify shortages or surpluses
• Connected to the rota: so the forecast shapes the schedule, rather than sitting in a separate report
• Supply forecasting: looks at the internal workforce, including turnover and promotions, to plan for the future
• Managers still in charge: the forecast informs the decision, and leaders who know the site make the final call, shifting teams from reactive hiring to proactive talent management

How Rotageek forecasts labour demand and improves staff scheduling 

Rotageek's forecasting uses machine learning to predict labour demand for each task and location, down to 15-minute increments. It can draw on any data point, from footfall and transactions to patient check-ins, and accounts for historic data, trends and events.

That forecast then feeds straight into staff scheduling, alongside budgets, service levels and staff availability. The result is a schedule built on data rather than intuition, with managers still making the final call.

Rotageek customers see the difference:

• Forecasting can improve labour-to-demand alignment by up to 25% compared with traditional methods
• Customers report up to 13% weekly savings on overtime and labour costs, and a 10% increase in revenue
• The Entertainer uses Rotageek's AI-powered forecasting and scheduling to align labour with demand across its stores and wholesale operations
• At Lush's Birmingham flagship, better scheduling contributed to an 8% reduction in staff costs and a 16% increase in productivity in a single quarter

Forecasting and labour models can tell managers where it would be best to place staff at different points in the day. Under the 2027 rules, that's exactly the kind of decision you'll want to get right the first time.

How can you start improving your forecast now? 

You don't need to wait for 2027. Five steps to take in the next few months: 

1. Find your late changes. Look at how often shifts are cancelled, moved or cut short, and at which sites.

2. Ask why they happen. If the answer is often "it was busier or quieter than we expected", that's a forecasting gap.

3. Check your data. List what you already collect, such as footfall, sales, transactions and turnover patterns, and how far back it goes.

4. Compare contracts with reality. Look at contracted hours against hours actually worked, person by person.

5. See how far ahead you publish. Note how many days' notice teams get today, and what it would take to add a few more.

If any of this is hard to pull together, that's a useful sign of where to start. 

 Key takeaways 

• From 2027, zero-hours and low-hours workers are expected to gain rights to guaranteed hours, reasonable notice of shifts and pay for short-notice changes.
• Each change rewards getting demand right early, and makes last-minute fixes more expensive.
• Good forecasts use your own data, work in fine detail and feed straight into the rota.
• Better forecasting means fewer late changes, contracted hours that match real demand, and more predictable shifts for your people.

Get ready for 2027

The rules are changing, but the principle isn't. Know your demand, plan for it early, and the rota takes care of a lot of the rest.

See how Rotageek's forecasting could help your teams plan with confidence.

This article is for general information and isn't legal advice. Employment law details may change as regulations are confirmed, so check the latest Acas and GOV.UK guidance or seek professional advice for your specific situation.